平和
和平
평화
CHINA
07 June 2014
Xi Jinping - Caricature

China/US relationship now

Both Xi Jinping and Barack Obama would like a peaceful relationship so they can concentrate on dealing with problems at home. How will they manage?

Both Xi Jinping and Barack Obama would like a peaceful China/US relationship so they can concentrate on dealing with their immense problems at home, according to a recent panel of experts at the Brookings Institution.

But how will they manage?

Like Barack Obama some four years ago, Xi Jinping has inherited a very full platter of domestic challenges. For example, there is widespread public criticism of the Communist Party's management of the economy and environment.

Economic growth rates are declining for structural, not cyclical reasons. The old export-driven economic model has run its course, and must be changed. And the recent air pollution problems in Beijing provoked social and political unrest.

There is widespread and deeply entrenched corruption at all levels of government. Then there are those people with very powerful vested interests in the former economic model, which was very successful and profitable to them in the past. But now the previous decade of consensus-based politics must now be followed by rupture.

So what s Xi's strategy?

First of all, Xi fully supports the continuation of the current political system, with the Communist Party's absolute monopoly on power. This means a need for greater discipline and cohesion in the Party.

At the same time, there are moves to improve public support for the Party in light of the extraordinary public criticism and contempt. This includes the anti-corruption campaign, and promoting nationalism through the "Chinese Dream" campaign.

Xi intends to implement economic reform, the details which are very slow coming out. The third plenum, due in October, will likely lay out a reform program with real clarity. Reforms might begin on the financial side, as they are easier politically and bureaucratically.

Reform will face immense resistance from state-owned enterprises which have enjoyed protection and from local political leaders who have benefited from the current system, and who can easily slow reform down.

With this full platter of challenges, Xi would like China/US relations on a solid footing so he can concentrate on China's domestic situation.

The prospects of domestic success are very uncertain. Problems are complex. Vested interests and corruption are entrenched. And social unrest is widespread.

In Beijing, there are contrasting opinions about the future. Some are optimistic. Others believe that China is in deep trouble. But no-one is sure about the future.

What is sure is that China's political power derives from its economic performance and projected rise. Thus, the future of China's economy will have a direct impact on its political power.

With a peaceful China/US relationship being necessary for both sides, a very good personal relationship is also necessary between the leaders -- especially since both Xi and Obama sit on top of complex political machines, which they do not fully control.

The recent "Sunnydale" summit between XI and Obama was very useful for building a personal relationship. There was convergence on issues like North Korea, climate change and military cooperation. Areas of divergence included cyber issues, and the East and South East China Seas.

China is very keen to develop a "new type of major power relationship", different from previous scenarios where a rising power challenged the established power. China does not want conflict with the US. And unlike past rising powers, China is already tied into the international system.

Obama apparently issued a strong warning regarding China's cyber espionage, not so much of strategic intelligence which everyone does, but of commercial intellectual property.

Overall, China wants the US to treat it as a major power. But in its mind, a major power like China does not back down when it comes to disputes with neighbors like Japan and the Philippines. Regrettably, China has not yet understood that it sometimes behooves a great power to be generous with smaller countries.

But the present juncture highlights how unpredictable events can hijack a situation. Less than three weeks ago, Xi and Obama had a very successful summit. And in less than two weeks time, the annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue between China and America will take place.

As if by an Act of God, right now we are in the midst of the "Edward Snowden" affair -- the CIA contractor who leaked confidential information about America's own cyber-espionage and cyber hacking activities, including of Chinese government and other websites. This comes on the back of US accusations regarding China's cyber espionage and hacking.

The White House has accused China of instructing the Hong Kong government to dispatch Snowden to Moscow, rather than sending him back to the US. According to the White House, this incident will severely affect China/US relations.

I think that it is rather naive to ignore the risks that Snowden posed to China and Hong Kong. Already, a substantial slice of Hong Kong public opinion sided with Snowden and his whistle blowing, especially since the US was apparently conducting cyber-espionage of Hong Kong.

If China sent Snowden back to the US, the Chinese government would expose itself to the wrath of its own public opinion and blogosphere which has been educated to be anti-American -- and which is incensed that America has been conducting cyber-espionage on China. And after all, the US is a regular harbor for Chinese dissidents.

Over the past day or two, President Obama has sought to downplay the Edward Snowden affair. This is right. Hysterical complaints in the international media only make America look weak.

And in recent days, the Chinese government has accorded a royal welcome to South Korea's new President Park, something which the North Korean leadership has not yet received.

All things considered, how could we describe the current state of relations between Xi's China and Obama's America?

Right now China/US relations are very much full of "good intentions". This is very important because all too often countries with domestic problems seek to divert their public's attention by international adventures.

But the real test of the strength of the China/US relationship will come when they must manage complex problems together. The relationship now needs more meat on the bones.

In conclusion, for the moment, the jury is still out on the state of China/US relations right now.

Author

John West
Executive Director
Asian Century Institute
www.asiancenturyinstitute.com
Tags: china, China/US relationship, Xi Jinping, Barack Obama, cyber-espionage

Social share

{crossposting on} Twitted