平和
和平
평화
ASIA
26 March 2014

33rd Annual Asian American and Pacific Islander Heritage Festival (DUMBO Brooklyn 2012)

Asian Americans key for Democrats in 2016

Asian Americans are staunchly Democrat, and the fastest growing population group in the US. They will be critical for Hillary Clinton or any other Democrat candidate in 2016.

Asian Americans are staunchly Democrat, and the fastest growing population group in the US. They will be critical for Hillary Clinton or any other Democratic candidate in 2016.

The re-election of Barack Obama has generated too much speculative analysis. As the Huffington Post's Simon Jackman has convincingly argued, Obama's re-election was "unremarkable". The various optimistic predictions for Romney could only have been cheer-leading or for media entertainment.

Obama's re-election was unremarkable for several reasons. Incumbents usually get re-elected. When they don't, it's because of very special reasons -- like the cases of Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush. Based on history, the economy was just good enough to enable Obama to scrape through. The serious polls predicted his victory all along, even after the first presidential debate.

The declining share of the White electorate is also making it harder for the Republicans. Over the past three elections, the White electorate has slipped from 77% of total, then to 74% and now to 72%. Even though the Republicans get 60% of the White vote, they can't win the election when 80% of the rest of the country vote Democrat.

Knowing these factors, the best Republican candidates, like Chris Christie, refrained from entering the race. It thus becomes self-fulfilling. In the end, the result was not even close, 52-48 on a two party basis.

The 2016 election will be more interesting, as there will be no incumbent. If her health recovers, Hillary Clinton will be be a shoe-in for the Democratic candidacy. The Republicans will still have to deal with their extremists. But they could yet have a good candidate, like Chris Christie or Jeb Bush.

So how could the 2016 election shape up?

The economy will be in good shape by then. But the gap between rich and poor will have kept growing. Both should help the Democrats.

The second Obama administration should have secured a deal for American's government debt. There should be less fighting in the Congress. This may help the Republicans who are perceived as much of the problem in Congress.

Obama should also have secured an immigration reform deal. And moderate Latino Republicans like Florida's Marco Rubio could have pushed the Party to soften its attitude to Latino immigrants. This would be a positive for the Republicans. Even though 71% voted Democrat, Latinos share many Republican values (Christianity and family) and there are many rich Latinos, too.

Since an African American candidate is unlikely, Democrats may not get quite the same 93% vote as in 2016. And despite her resurrection as Secretary of State, not all women are enamored by Hillary Clinton.

This brings us to the Asian American vote. In fact, the Democrats did even better on the Asian American vote (73/26) than they did with Hispanics, although Asians are the best educated and highest income group in America. They are even above whites (including Jews)!

There has been much speculation as to why Asians should be so staunchly Democrat. They are more communitarian and less individualist. Most are not Christian and do not appreciate Republicans' militant Christianity. They are pro-science and pragmatic, rather than being ideological. They suffer from White racism. Democrats are more immigrant-friendly.

Asian Americans have swung sharply from being pro-Republican to pro-Democrat over the past two decades, at the same time as the Republicans have become more extreme and intolerant. In general, Asians are respectful of authority and are not ideologically anti-government like Republicans.

We shouldn't be totally surprised about Asians' support for the Democratic Party. Jews (2% of the US population) are another highly educated, wealthy and pro-family group that gave Obama 69% of their vote, even though the Republican Party is seen as being more pro-Israel.

The Asian American vote has been little discussed perhaps because they only accounted 3% of the national voting population. But Asian Americans represent 6% of the total US population. And with their average age of 17, just the effect of ageing means that Asian Americans will account for a much bigger share of the electorate in 2016. They are also the fastest growing demographic in the country, and they are starting to move out of Democrat states (California, Hawaii, New York and New Jersey) to swing states like Virginia and North Carolina. And Asian Americans will benefit disproportionately from the expected reform regarding skilled migration.

So come 2016, this seemingly insignificant Asian American vote will have assumed much greater importance, and could well be the deciding factor.

Let's wait and see.

Author

John West
Executive Director
Asian Century Institute
www.asiancenturyinstitute.com
Tags: asia, US, Presidential elections, Hillary Clinton, Democrats, Simon Jackman

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