ASEAN
06 August 2026
Philippines’ middle power opportunity
The Philippines’ middle power opportunity must be grabbed.
The importance and opportunity of middle powers working together was most famously stressed by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at this year’s Davos meeting. And the Philippines is one country for which this is relevant.
Carney claimed that we are in the midst of a rupture of the “rules-based international order”. To help solve global problems, Canada is working with different coalitions for different issues based on common values and interests. In sum, Carney believes middle powers must act together, because if they are not at the table, they’re on the menu.
– In July this year, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney officially elevated their bilateral relations to a “strategic partnership”.
– In May, President Marcos and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae decided to elevate bilateral relations to the “comprehensive strategic partnership”.
– In September 2023, Australian Prime Minister Albanese and President Marcos elevated the bilateral relationship to a “strategic partnership”.
– In July this year the European Union and the Philippines upgraded relations to an “enhanced partnership”.
This dispute is about China's claim to about 90 percent of the South China Sea, under China’s “nine-dash line”, even though several countries including the Philippines also have claims on part of the South China Sea. Manila asserts its rights over its Exclusive Economic Zone which it calls the West Philippine Sea. In defiance of these multiple claims, from around 2009, China has been harassing foreign ships; exploring and extracting resources; and constructing artificial islands.
Thus in 2013, the Philippines bravely challenged China at the Arbitral Tribunal under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. In 2016 the Tribunal determined that major elements of China’s claim—including its nine-dash line, recent land reclamation activities, and other activities in Philippine waters—were unlawful. Predictably, China reacted negatively, maintaining it was “null and void.” To this day, relations between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea remain highly volatile due to frequent maritime clashes.
The 10th anniversary of the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Award was officially commemorated by the Philippines on July 12, 2026, which reaffirmed that the ruling is final, binding, and cannot be diminished, serving as a critical tool for defending Philippine sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea. Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro considers the historic 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Award as the country’s "gift to the world".
The Philippines was joined in its celebration by 13 other nations — including the United States, Japan, Australia, Canada, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. These nations reaffirmed that the Award rendered ten years ago by the Arbitral Tribunal is “final, legally binding, and definitive … and that there is no legal basis for China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea, including those based on “historic rights "".
Once upon a time, back in the 1950s and early 1960s, the Philippines was Asia’s second ranked, trailing only Japan. But the Philippines suffered greatly under the corrupt and violent regime of President Ferdinand Marcos (1965-86).
More recently, from 2010 through 2024, the Philippines has been bouncing back, with solid annual GDP growth of 5.5%. Strong points of the Philippines economy include business process outsourcing, shipbuilding, semiconductors and tourism.
But the Philippines should be doing much better. It suffers from poor education, health, infrastructure, as well as endemic corruption. And the lack of economic opportunity at home has driven some 10 percent of the Philippine population (10-12 million) overseas. Today, many Filipinos and their economy rely on migrants’ remittances home. Filipinos should take heed of Vietnam’s current dynamism – this country which suffered from decades of war and authoritarian governance has now overtaken the Philippines in terms of GDP per capita (Vietnam’s is $5,100 and Philippines' $4,440).
Fundamentally, the Philippines lives with the “sword of Damocles” hanging over its head. The country’s politics is a battleground between elite family dynasties, mixed with populism and more show business than substance. Curiously, in 2022 Filipinos elected the son of the deposed and disgraced President Ferdinand Marcos (1965-86). His predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte was arrested and transferred to The Hague on March 11, 2025, to face a trial before the International Criminal Court on November 30, 2026. Duterte is scheduled to face charges of crimes against humanity for murder and attempted murder tied to his "war on drugs".
The current Vice President, Sara Duterte, is the daughter of the former president. She was impeached by the House of Representatives and faces a Senate trial due to a bitter political feud with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Nevertheless, she will likely be a very popular candidate at the next presidential elections, scheduled for 2028.
Life in the Philippines is nothing short of entertaining. But sadly, it is perhaps this lack of seriousness that stops the country from being taken more seriously as a middle power and taking advantage of its attractive middle power opportunity.
Carney claimed that we are in the midst of a rupture of the “rules-based international order”. To help solve global problems, Canada is working with different coalitions for different issues based on common values and interests. In sum, Carney believes middle powers must act together, because if they are not at the table, they’re on the menu.
The Philippines strengthens partnerships with other middle powers
The Philippines can certainly benefit from middle power cooperation, especially for its dispute with China over the South China Sea, and has been strengthening relations with a range of other middle powers.– In July this year, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney officially elevated their bilateral relations to a “strategic partnership”.
– In May, President Marcos and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae decided to elevate bilateral relations to the “comprehensive strategic partnership”.
– In September 2023, Australian Prime Minister Albanese and President Marcos elevated the bilateral relationship to a “strategic partnership”.
– In July this year the European Union and the Philippines upgraded relations to an “enhanced partnership”.
The Philippines stoush with China over the South China Sea
In sum, as the rules-based international order is threatened by great power rivalry, and geopolitical fractures and instability, the Philippines has been at the heart of active middle power diplomacy. This is most evident in relation to the Philippines dispute with China regarding the South China Sea.This dispute is about China's claim to about 90 percent of the South China Sea, under China’s “nine-dash line”, even though several countries including the Philippines also have claims on part of the South China Sea. Manila asserts its rights over its Exclusive Economic Zone which it calls the West Philippine Sea. In defiance of these multiple claims, from around 2009, China has been harassing foreign ships; exploring and extracting resources; and constructing artificial islands.
Thus in 2013, the Philippines bravely challenged China at the Arbitral Tribunal under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. In 2016 the Tribunal determined that major elements of China’s claim—including its nine-dash line, recent land reclamation activities, and other activities in Philippine waters—were unlawful. Predictably, China reacted negatively, maintaining it was “null and void.” To this day, relations between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea remain highly volatile due to frequent maritime clashes.
10-year anniversary of Arbitral Tribunal decision
Immediately after this decision, Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency of the Philippines and pursued a policy of appeasement toward China. In sharp contrast, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, in power since 2022, has taken a firm, assertive stance. He actively upholds the 2016 Arbitral Award, publicly condemns Chinese aggression, and has bolstered maritime security alliances with international partners like the United States, Japan, and Australia.The 10th anniversary of the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Award was officially commemorated by the Philippines on July 12, 2026, which reaffirmed that the ruling is final, binding, and cannot be diminished, serving as a critical tool for defending Philippine sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea. Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro considers the historic 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Award as the country’s "gift to the world".
The Philippines was joined in its celebration by 13 other nations — including the United States, Japan, Australia, Canada, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. These nations reaffirmed that the Award rendered ten years ago by the Arbitral Tribunal is “final, legally binding, and definitive … and that there is no legal basis for China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea, including those based on “historic rights "".
The Philippines middle power imperatives
The Philippines can feel proud of its partnerships and support from a range of middle powers. But it needs to do much more work at home to become a bone fide middle power – notably by lifting its economic performance and improving its democratic credentials.Once upon a time, back in the 1950s and early 1960s, the Philippines was Asia’s second ranked, trailing only Japan. But the Philippines suffered greatly under the corrupt and violent regime of President Ferdinand Marcos (1965-86).
More recently, from 2010 through 2024, the Philippines has been bouncing back, with solid annual GDP growth of 5.5%. Strong points of the Philippines economy include business process outsourcing, shipbuilding, semiconductors and tourism.
But the Philippines should be doing much better. It suffers from poor education, health, infrastructure, as well as endemic corruption. And the lack of economic opportunity at home has driven some 10 percent of the Philippine population (10-12 million) overseas. Today, many Filipinos and their economy rely on migrants’ remittances home. Filipinos should take heed of Vietnam’s current dynamism – this country which suffered from decades of war and authoritarian governance has now overtaken the Philippines in terms of GDP per capita (Vietnam’s is $5,100 and Philippines' $4,440).
Philippines flawed democracy
The Philippines has also much to do to improve the quality of its democracy. Since Ferdinand Marcos was overthrown in a “People Power” revolution in 1986, the Philippines has been an “electoral democracy”. But with a broader perspective of democracy, the Economist Intelligence Unit classifies the Philippines as a “flawed democracy”, ranked 62nd out of 167 countries surveyed (the US is also regarded as a flawed democracy, ranked 34th). Philippine democracy is afflicted by government corruption, political dynasties, and human rights abuses.Fundamentally, the Philippines lives with the “sword of Damocles” hanging over its head. The country’s politics is a battleground between elite family dynasties, mixed with populism and more show business than substance. Curiously, in 2022 Filipinos elected the son of the deposed and disgraced President Ferdinand Marcos (1965-86). His predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte was arrested and transferred to The Hague on March 11, 2025, to face a trial before the International Criminal Court on November 30, 2026. Duterte is scheduled to face charges of crimes against humanity for murder and attempted murder tied to his "war on drugs".
The current Vice President, Sara Duterte, is the daughter of the former president. She was impeached by the House of Representatives and faces a Senate trial due to a bitter political feud with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Nevertheless, she will likely be a very popular candidate at the next presidential elections, scheduled for 2028.
Life in the Philippines is nothing short of entertaining. But sadly, it is perhaps this lack of seriousness that stops the country from being taken more seriously as a middle power and taking advantage of its attractive middle power opportunity.