CHINA
13 July 2020
Do middle powers have a China dilemma?
Andrew Peaple moderates a feisty debate between Kerry Brown and Matthew Henderson, on how middle powers should deal with the rise of China.
Some key points:
-- we have to live with the reality China which is unlikely to fall apart and unlikely to change.
-- CCP's plan for Chinese socialism to defeat Western capitalism. CCP's strategy is to surpass and undermine the West, and to replace the Western rules-based system.
-- sooner or later China's middle classes will make reform inevitable. How this will work out, we don't know.
-- the CCP is not the problem according to Brown. Chinese sense of national pride in economic importance, nationalism transcends the CCP. Without the CCP, we would lose predictability. Nationalism is an organic force that is going to dominate China.
-- CCP actively trying to replace the US as the supreme world superpower.
-- CCP legitimacy as protector of Chinese sovereign territory and Chinese people.
-- we need reciprocity in economic relations with China, which we don't have. Not enough the WTO has been able to ensure reciprocity.
-- in some areas, China is ahead of UK in intellectual property.
-- we do not want Huawei, UK does not have reciprocity with China in that industry.
-- Japan has managed better to get strategic balance in the economic relationship.
-- China does not like the current world system, and wants to change it to one that serves the CCP.
-- HSBC and Standard Chartered pressured by Beijing to support new security law for HK.
-- Despite China's nefarious behaviour, we need cooperation with China for global issues like climate change etc.
-- No easy solution to China relationship. Need to find middle ground.
-- China is a propaganda-based system. Xi Jinping is now presented as a victor in a war of socialism against capitalism.
-- the people of Wuhan do not agree with the CCP (Henderson). So how stable is the CCP? It is not eternal. Chinese dynasties come and go. CCP is becoming increasingly unstable. CCP may be in rapid decline.
-- we have to live with the reality China which is unlikely to fall apart and unlikely to change.
-- CCP's plan for Chinese socialism to defeat Western capitalism. CCP's strategy is to surpass and undermine the West, and to replace the Western rules-based system.
-- sooner or later China's middle classes will make reform inevitable. How this will work out, we don't know.
-- the CCP is not the problem according to Brown. Chinese sense of national pride in economic importance, nationalism transcends the CCP. Without the CCP, we would lose predictability. Nationalism is an organic force that is going to dominate China.
-- CCP actively trying to replace the US as the supreme world superpower.
-- CCP legitimacy as protector of Chinese sovereign territory and Chinese people.
-- we need reciprocity in economic relations with China, which we don't have. Not enough the WTO has been able to ensure reciprocity.
-- in some areas, China is ahead of UK in intellectual property.
-- we do not want Huawei, UK does not have reciprocity with China in that industry.
-- Japan has managed better to get strategic balance in the economic relationship.
-- China does not like the current world system, and wants to change it to one that serves the CCP.
-- HSBC and Standard Chartered pressured by Beijing to support new security law for HK.
-- Despite China's nefarious behaviour, we need cooperation with China for global issues like climate change etc.
-- No easy solution to China relationship. Need to find middle ground.
-- China is a propaganda-based system. Xi Jinping is now presented as a victor in a war of socialism against capitalism.
-- the people of Wuhan do not agree with the CCP (Henderson). So how stable is the CCP? It is not eternal. Chinese dynasties come and go. CCP is becoming increasingly unstable. CCP may be in rapid decline.